If you’re the type who needs empirical evidence to believe what everyone else is thinking, well, here you go.
After a wild weekend of college football that saw the Nos. 2, 3, 4, 8, 9 and 14 teams fall, stats guru Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com updated its College Football Playoff odds — and Alabama is the last remaining SEC team with much of a chance.
Florida rounds out the list with less than 1 percent odds — even selecting the win-out option puts the Gators only at 7 percent — as the only other SEC team present, after losses from Auburn and Texas A&M dropped them from the list completely.
The Crimson Tide top it, as most anyone would expect with them and Western Michigan as the lone undefeated teams remaining. The feat is much more impressive for an SEC team than one from the MAC, reflected by Western Michigan’s 68 percent chances of winning out but less than 1 percent odds of making the playoff, per FiveThirtyEight.
As it stands, FiveThirtyEight gives Alabama (91 percent), Clemson (64 percent), Ohio State (54 percent) and Louisville (48 percent) the best chances of reaching the playoff. However, it seems unlikely that both ACC teams will be included.
With Michigan (33 percent) at No. 5 in FiveThirtyEight’s rankings, its rivalry game against Ohio State should all but decide which Big Ten team is represented.
Washington (29 percent) ranks the lowest of the teams with one loss, but with a pair of Big Ten and ACC teams ahead of it, winning out could still qualify the Huskies for the playoff (FiveThirtyEight gives them an 83 percent chance of making it if they win out).
Play around with the scenarios in FiveThirtyEight’s interactive graphic. Is there any way the Crimson Tide don’t make it?