The Georgia Bulldogs (12-1) have one of the best paths in the College Football Playoff. After winning the SEC Championship Game over Alabama, Kirby Smart’s team earned the No. 3-seed in the CFP and will play the winner of the Ole Miss-Tulane game on Jan. 1 in New Orleans from the Sugar Bowl.
The 28-7 beatdown over the Crimson Tide convinced plenty of college football fans that the Dawgs are the best team in America. Or maybe that’s just the bias in me talking, because ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) clearly does not see it that way.
Despite a 12-1 record, 5 wins over top-25 teams, a quarterback that finished 7th in Heisman voting in Gunner Stockton and the nation’s 4th best rushing defense, ESPN’s computers really don’t like Georgia.
ESPN FPI rankings ahead of College Football Playoff show little love to Georgia
ESPN’s Football Power Index, known as FPI, is a predictive metric that estimates a team’s true strength. It uses efficiency, opponent quality, and game control to project future performance and win probabilities.
And it’s not a Georgia fan. It’s a Big Ten believer.
RELATED: ESPN analysts all make the same Georgia prediction ahead of CFP
ESPN’s FPI has Indiana at No. 1. Ohio State is No. 2. Notre Dame and Oregon follow. The model gives Indiana and Ohio State identical odds to win the CFP. Each sits at 25.9%.
Texas Tech checks in at No. 5. And then that’s where you find Georgia. The FPI has UGA ranked No. 6 in college football.
Additionally, it gives Georgia just an 11.6% chance of winning the whole thing. Now, that’s not all that bad. It’s actually the third-highest odds of any team in the tournament. But to have IU and OSU at 25.9% and Georgia at 11.6% seems….off.
RELATED: Ohio State’s Caleb Downs wants to play Georgia
I’m not even going to touch on Notre Dame being ranked No. 3.
Here’s the ESPN FPI rankings right now:
- Indiana
- Ohio State
- Notre Dame
- Oregon
- Texas Tech
- Georgia
- Miami
- Alabama
- Utah
- Texas A&M
- USC
- Ole Miss
- Texas
- Vanderbilt
- Oklahoma
RELATED: Georgia ends 34-year run as hated rival VANISHES from 2026 schedule
Here are the FPI’s playoff teams with the best chances to win the national championship:
- Ohio State: 25.9%
- Indiana: 25.9%
- Georgia: 11.6%
- Texas Tech: 10.9%
- Oregon: 10.3%
- Ole Miss: 4.8%
- Miami: 3.2%
- Texas A&M: 3.1%
- Alabama: 2.7%
- Oklahoma: 1.4%
- Tulane: 0.1%
- James Madison: 0.1%
Assuming Georgia wins the Sugar Bowl against either Ole Miss or Tulane, it would most likely face Ohio State, which plays the winner of Texas A&M-Miami. And that game would be in the Fiesta Bowl, played on January 8 in Glendale, AZ.
If Georgia beats Ohio State (again), it would play – stay with me – either Indiana, Texas Tech, Oregon, Alabama, Oklahoma or James Madison.
If Georgia were to play Indiana in the national championship, there’s a good chance most TVs would be turned off by halftime. It’s a big if, but we’ve seen this movie before. The last time UGA faced a Cinderella team in the national title, it turned into a 65-7 demolition of TCU. That’s a 58-point margin, which at the time was the largest blowout in the history of any bowl game. It’s still the largest in the history of the national championship.
Then the very next bowl season, Georgia broke its own record. In the 2023 Orange Bowl, Georgia thumped Florida State 63-3 for a 60-point win, setting a new record for the largest margin of victory ever in a bowl game at the FBS level.
