The Georgia Bulldogs took care of business against Mississippi State on Saturday, rolling to a 41-21 win to improve to 8-1 overall and 6-1 in SEC play. Ranked No. 5 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, Georgia finds itself in the middle of a crowded playoff and SEC race as the season winds down.
Next up, and one of the biggest tests yet, is a primetime matchup in Athens against No. 11 Texas. The Longhorns, led by Arch Manning, are 7-2 and 4-1 in the SEC, with a bye week to prepare while Georgia battled Mississippi State. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC on Saturday, Nov. 15, and it’s shaping up to be a must-win for both programs fighting to stay alive in the CFP race.
For Georgia, a win over Texas keeps the Bulldogs in the hunt for the SEC Championship Game. Right now, they sit third in the SEC standings behind Alabama and Texas A&M…both unbeaten in conference play and not scheduled to face each other. A loss, however, would all but end Georgia’s hopes of reaching Atlanta, while a win keeps the path open, especially if the Bulldogs can handle Charlotte and Georgia Tech to close out the regular season.
Still, there’s an interesting dilemma brewing in Athens. Even if Georgia wins out and sneaks into the SEC title game, a potential loss to Alabama or Texas A&M could drop them out of CFP contention entirely. Finishing 11-1 without playing in the SEC Championship could, in some scenarios, be a cleaner route into the playoff picture. But winning the SECCG is always nice. There are always those Georgia fans who say, “Let’s just win.” Well, yeah, but that’s not really the point. It’s worth a conversation, especially when Georgia’s missed the CFP because of this exact scenario before.
It is fair to say that the Bulldogs have to get past Texas next week. And ESPN’s analytics model sees it as a tight one. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), which factors in team strength, opponent quality, and game location, Georgia has a 57.6% chance to beat Texas.
The Longhorns have been solid defensively, ranking No. 23 in total defense nationally while allowing 313 yards per game. But their offense under Arch Manning hasn’t really found its rhythm, sitting at just No. 71 in the FBS with 381 yards per game. Georgia’s offense, led by Gunner Stockton, ranks No. 42 at 420 yards per game and continues to improve each week.
Defensively, Georgia has been strong statistically but inconsistent when it comes to pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Before the Mississippi State game, the Bulldogs ranked No. 19 nationally in total defense, allowing 309 yards per game, but the pass rush remains an area to watch heading into this matchup.
Playing in Athens at night, though, is a different story. Sanford Stadium transforms after dark…and for visiting teams, that’s often when the chaos begins.
