Kentucky football concludes its regular season with the annual rivalry game against Louisville, playing for the Governor’s Cup. A year ago, the Wildcats beat the Cardinals in a thrilling 41-38 game. This year, both teams enter with identical 7-4 records.
Before we dive into the SEC Country predictions, here are the standings after 12 weeks.
Joe Mussatto: 4-0 in Week 12 (including almost nailing the 42-13 final score); 32-18 overall
Kyle Tucker: 1-3 in Week 12; 23-27 overall
Kentucky vs. Louisville predictions, over/unders
Lamar Jackson total offense: O/U 400 yards
Joe Mussatto: Over. Lamar Jackson will be the best player on the field Saturday, and he’s still one of the best, if not the best player, in the country. Jackson had 452 yards of offense in the game a year ago. Betting on 400-plus yards again doesn’t seem safe, but he’s surpassed that mark in several games this season. Jackson rushed for 171 yards against Kentucky last year, and the Cats defense hasn’t improved. He’s not only supremely talented, but Jackson will surely be extra motivated seeing how things played out last year.
Kyle Tucker: Over. He’s averaging a ridiculous 415 total total yards this season and has eclipsed 400 in a single game five times. Jackson had 452 in a loss to UK last season.
More total offense: Lamar Jackson or the entire Kentucky team?
Joe Mussatto: Jackson. I kept going back and forth on this one trying to figure it out based on the above prediction and the score prediction below. If Jackson surpasses the 400-yard mark, and if Louisville holds Kentucky to 31 points, chances are Jackson will have more total offense than Kentucky. It still seems hard to imagine, though. But everything in Louisville’s offense runs through its star quarterback.
Kyle Tucker: Jackson. The Cats average 352 total yards this season and only went over 400 four times. Neither defense is good, but Jackson is more dangerous than anyone UK has.
Benny Snell rushing yards: O/U 125.5
Joe Mussatto: Over. Snell has been terrific over the last four games, and that likely won’t change Saturday. Louisville has been better than average against the run, giving up 147 yards per game on the ground, but Kentucky is going to hand the ball to Snell early and often. He’s carried the ball 227 times this season — tops in the SEC. Just by sheer volume of touches he’ll surpass the 125-yard mark.
Kyle Tucker: Under. I think he’ll hit 100 — he’s averaged 141.5 per game over the last four — but I suspect Louisville, which is not terrible against the run, will sell out to stop him and make Snell earn yards on a heavy workload.
Kentucky (+10) vs. Louisville football game picks
Joe Mussatto: The Cardinals are third in the country in yards per game, and Jackson’s numbers are almost as good as his Heisman campaign last season. That doesn’t bode well for a struggling Kentucky defense. Louisville 38, Kentucky 31.
Kyle Tucker: An angry Jackson — he said he’s waited a year to redeem himself after the clinching fumble last season — who is also trying to put on a Heisman-invite-worthy performance, should be scary for UK’s defense. Louisville 41, Kentucky 31.