Forget how LSU holds middling averages of 16.5 points in its last four games.
Forget how the Tigers currently own the nation’s 110th-ranked passing offense — at just 173 yards and 1.1 touchdowns per outing.
Forget how LSU ranks just 70th nationally in scoring.
And forget how the Tigers currently stand 72nd in red-zone efficiency (along with Kentucky, Eastern Michigan, Arizona) — with a blah conversion rate of 83.3 percent.
None of this should matter … when Texas Tech comes next on the docket.
To characterize the Red Raiders’ defense as “generous” would be a loose term. They currently rank 124th in scoring defense (42.6 points per game), 124th in third-down defense, 125th in rushing defense (272 yards allowed per outing) and 126th in total defense (540.2 yards).
And for those keeping track … there are only 127 FBS programs.
In other words, Texas Tech isn’t built to beat balanced teams, especially ones with top-notch defenders (like LSU). Against four ranked opponents this year — at the time of the meetings — the Red Raiders averaged 42 points against TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma … and still lost by an average of 21!
Think about that.
The long-term history play doesn’t support a Red Raiders upset, either.
Of Texas Tech’s eight meetings against SEC foes from the last 20 years (excluding Missouri and Texas A&M as Big 12 members), the program has a 1-7 record and an average point differential of minus-12.
The only real drama here: Predicting how many rushing yards LSU tailback Leonard Fournette — fresh off his Heisman-finalist snub — collects against Texas Tech. Given the super sophomore’s per-game average of 158.2 rushing yards … the “over-under” for the bowl lies in the 186 range.
And even that’s a conservative listing.
Jay Clemons, the 2015 national winner for “Sports Blog Of The Year” (Cynopsis Media), has previously written for SI.com, The National Football Post, Bleacher Report and FOX Sports.