Missouri football will try to take a step forward in Barry Odom’s second season as the Tigers’ coach. ESPN’s FPI projects that Missouri has a chance to improve upon its disappointing 4-8 record from last year.
The Tigers are No. 41 overall in the latest FPI rankings. Mizzou’s four wins last year were its fewest since going 4-7 in Gary Pinkel’s first season as the program’s coach in 2001. The Tigers are projected to win 6.5 games, but the FPI favors them in just five contests.
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.
Take a look at the game-by-game projections for the 2017 Missouri football schedule:
|DATE||OPPONENT||ESPN FPI PROJECTION|
|Sept. 2||vs. Missouri State||98.3% chance Missouri wins|
|Sept. 9||vs. South Carolina||52.4% chance Missouri wins|
|Sept. 16||vs. Purdue||89.9% chance Missouri wins|
|Sept. 23||vs. Auburn||17.3% chance Missouri wins|
|Oct. 7||at Kentucky||39.4% chance Missouri wins|
|Oct. 14||at Georgia||16.9% chance Missouri wins|
|Oct. 21||vs. Idaho||94.8% chance Missouri wins|
|Oct. 28||at Connecticut||88.6% chance Missouri wins|
|Nov. 4||vs. Florida||33.6% chance Missouri wins|
|Nov. 11||vs. Tennessee||35.7% chance Missouri wins|
|Nov. 18||at Vanderbilt||46.0% chance Missouri wins|
|Nov. 25||at Arkansas||37.8% chance Missouri wins|
The Tigers have a win probability of greater than 50 percent in games against Missouri State, South Carolina, Purdue, Idaho and Connecticut. The Vanderbilt game is considered a “toss up,” with the Tigers given a 46 percent chance to win.
Missouri has a win probability of less than 30 percent in games against Auburn and Georgia. The Tigers also are given a low-percentage chance of beating Kentucky (39.4 percent), Florida (33.6), Tennessee (35.7) and Arkansas (37.8).
A bowl game should be the goal for Missouri after the Tigers missed out on postseason play last year. Earning at least six victories would be a step forward for Odom in his attempt to build the program.