ESPN’s Football Power Index offers a treasure trove of information for how the rest of the season will play out.
Beyond just telling fans who the best team in the country is, the index also compiles other key statistics such as projected win-loss record, remaining strength of schedule and what percentage a team has of winning out. The results are projected based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the 2016 season.
We’ve combed through the stats and found five numbers that give us a glimpse at how the rest of the SEC season could shake out:
1. Coach Ed Orgeron and LSU have the toughest remaining schedule in the country.
We’re going to find out how good LSU and Coach O are over their final four games. Because they going to be very difficult. LSU’s four remaining opponents—Alabama, Arkansas, Florida and Texas A&M—have a combined record of 22-5. Per the FPI, the Tigers have the No. 1 remaining strength of schedule in the country. Vanderbilt is second among SEC teams, which comes in at No. 3.
2. Alabama is the best bet to win the SEC.
Following the Crimson Tide’s 33-14 win over Texas A&M, Alabama is widely expected to win the SEC title. The FPI gives the Crimson Tide a 68 percent chance to win the SEC. That margin is the second highest among power five teams, trailing only Clemson’s 71 percent.
3. Alabama is also the favorite to win out.
Along with being the conference favorites, the Crimson Tide are also the SEC’s best bet to win out for the rest of the season. The Crimson Tide have a 41.1 percent of winning all of their remaining games, which include contests against LSU and Auburn. Alabama ranks fifth in the country in the category, trailing Louisville’s 70 percent.
4. Another loss is projected for Tennessee.
The Volunteers have the easiest remaining schedule in the SEC per the FPI with the No. 73 ranking. Tennessee has games against South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. And the FPI says one of those games will be a loss, as it pegs Tennessee to finish with 3.2 projected losses this season.
5. Ole Miss might still be a good football team.
Ole Miss fans aren’t feeling to great today. The Rebels have dropped two straight SEC games and are 3-4 on the season. But the FPI still has them as one of the top teams in the country. The FPI has the Rebels at No. 11, ahead of teams like unbeaten West Virginia and Baylor. Ole Miss’ remaining schedule is relatively easy compared to the rest of the SEC, as the remaining strength of schedule ranks at No. 36.