There is a heavy dose of the SEC in the ESPN’s Football Power Index this week. In fact, there are eight SEC teams in the top 25, which is easily the most of any conference.
ESPN’s FPI is a formula to measure team strength, and uses 10,000 simulations to project the remainder of the season.
Alabama leads the way with the highest position. The Crimson Tide are sixth in the FPI and have an 18.5 percent chance of winning out.
Right behind the Tide is LSU, which will play Alabama this Saturday in Tuscaloosa, Ala. LSU, the highest-ranked team in the AP Top 25, is eighth in the FPI. The Tigers have only a 5.8 percent chance of winning out, but LSU is projected to have a better chance of winning the conference than Alabama (19.1 percent to 14.2 percent).
Ole Miss landed 10th in the ranking. Winners of two in a row against Texas A&M and Auburn, the Rebels face Arkansas, LSU and Mississippi State to round out their regular-season schedule.
Ranked two spots below Ole Miss at No. 12 is Florida, the likely winner of the SEC East. The Gators, who improved to 7-1 Saturday against UGA, own a 21.5 percent chance of winning out and possess the best chance of winning the SEC at 44.2 percent. That number reflects the certainty Florida will be in Atlanta for the SEC Championship game, while the SEC West champion is still very much undecided.
There was a bit of a surprise in between Ole Miss and Florida at No. 11 with Tennessee taking the spot. At 4-4, the Vols earned a better position than ranked Mississippi State and Texas A&M squads.
Tennessee also has a 67.5 percent chance of winning out, the highest of any Power 5 conference team, with contests against South Carolina, North Texas, Missouri and Vanderbilt the next four weeks. The Vols are projected to end the year 8-4, or in other words, with four consecutive wins.
Mississippi State sits 16th in the rankings and has a 5.1 percent chance of winning out, as the Bulldogs take on Missouri, Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss in November. That is one of the five toughest remaining schedules in the country, according to the FPI.
True freshman quarterback Kyler Murray helped Texas A&M to 18th in the rankings. A&M snapped a two-game losing skid to South Carolina on Halloween and has a 15.3 percent chance of winning out the rest of the way.
UGA landed at No. 21 and is the final SEC team to crack the top 25. Coming off the loss to Florida, UGA does have a 20.1 percent chance of winning out the rest of its schedule.
Check out the top 25 teams in the ESPN Football Power Index below. The rating (Alabama’s 22.6 FPI, for example) is how many points above an average college football team the FPI projects each school to be:
- Baylor (7-0, 26.9 FPI)
- TCU (8-0, 25.5 FPI)
- Oklahoma (7-1, 25.2 FPI)
- Ohio State (8-0, 23.6 FPI)
- USC (5-3, 22.8 FPI)
- Alabama (7-1, 22.6 FPI)
- Clemson (8-0, 22.4 FPI)
- LSU (7-0, 22.1 FPI)
- Notre Dame (7-1, 21.0 FPI)
- Ole Miss (7-2, 20.9 FPI)
- Tennessee (4-4, 20.6 FPI)
- Florida (7-1, 19.5 FPI)
- Stanford (7-1, 18.9 FPI)
- Oklahoma State (8-0, 17.0 FPI)
- Florida State (7-1, 16.9 FPI)
- Mississippi State (6-2, 16.3 FPI)
- Texas A&M (6-2, 16.3 FPI)
- Michigan (6-2, 16.2 FPI)
- Michigan State (8-0, 15.7 FPI)
- Utah (7-1, 15.0 FPI)
- UGA (5-3, 15.0 FPI)
- UCLA (6-2, 14.7 FPI)
- North Carolina (7-1, 14.6 FPI)
- Wisconsin (7-2, 14.3 FPI)
- Cal (5-3, 13.9 FPI)