ESPN’s Football Power Index assigns a win probability for every team and every game played during the college football season.
Sometimes, the FPI and the Las Vegas odds makers differ. Week 7 is not one of those times.
With no spread lower than seven points and no win probability less than 67 percent, the consensus is that there may not be a ton of close games in the SEC this week.
Here’s a look at what the FPI projects for each game:
Mississippi State at BYU (Tonight 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: BYU to win, 71.3 percent
Overview: The Bulldogs are facing a short week of preparation and a cross-country flight, and the computers likely factored that in. The bookies agree, tabbing the Cougars as a touchdown favorite.
Vanderbilt at Georgia (Noon ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Georgia to win, 77.5 percent
Overview: The Bulldogs have won 19 of the last 21 meetings between these two schools, and the FPI puts their win probability at 77.5 percent. Georgia is also a 14-point favorite.
Alabama at Tennessee (3:30 ET, CBS)
ESPN FPI projection: Alabama to win, 67.2 percent
Overview: This is the game with the lowest win probability, yet the Crimson Tide are a 12-point favorite. Meanwhile, Tennessee will try to avoid losing its 10th straight game in this series.
Missouri at Florida (4 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Florida to win, 77.9 percent
Overview: The last time Missouri visited The Swamp, it trounced Florida, 42-13. The odds makers aren’t looking for a repeat, installing the Tigers as 13.5-point underdogs. The FPI doesn’t love their chances, either.
Ole Miss at Arkansas (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: Ole Miss to win, 76.6 percent
Overview: There’s a little discrepancy between the computers and the bookies on this one. Both like Ole Miss to pick up the win on the road, but the win probability is a little higher than a 7.5-point spread would warrant.
Southern Miss at LSU (7:30 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: LSU to win, 96.7 percent
Overview: With the mess surrounding the Florida game cleared up, LSU turns its eyes to Southern Miss. This is the closest thing to a lock on this week’s slate, with all signs pointing to a Tiger romp.