No. 1 Alabama last covered the spread in 5 consecutive games in 2011. The Crimson Tide get a chance to equal the mark this weekend against Mississippi State. As of Wednesday morning, Alabama is a 29.5-point favorite against the Bulldogs at the Wynn Las Vegas, the steepest line in the series. Alabama is 3-10 ATS in the last 13 matchups against Mississippi State when gifting 2 touchdowns or more.
No SEC team has beaten the number more than 4 times in a row in 2016. Then-No. 11 Auburn and Kentucky each lost out in their bid to do so last weekend. The Tigers narrowly escaped an outright upset as 23.5-point chalk with a 23-16 victory against Vanderbilt. The Wildcats dropped a 27-24 heartbreaker to Georgia as 2.5-point pups.
Auburn moves to 7-2 against the spread with the slip-up, the record still tops in the conference. Its 9.3 average margin over the number is also best in the SEC. Coach Gus Malzahn’s squad is a 10-point favorite at Georgia in Week 11, the program’s first as road chalk in the series since 1995. Georgia’s -9.9 average margin below the spread is worst in the conference.
Missouri is in a free fall in the betting market. The team has lost five in a row against the spread, failing to beat the number by an average of 14.7 points per game during the stretch. It’s the longest against-the-spread losing streak by any SEC team all season. The Tigers are 3.5-point favorites to win against Vanderbilt on Saturday. They have not defeated a conference opponent in 11 consecutive contests.
Coupled with Missouri, Ole Miss is the only SEC team with 6 defeats to the number. The Rebels have dropped three in a row against the spread and find themselves double-digit underdogs at Texas A&M. It is Ole Miss’ first test without starting quarterback Chad Kelly. The senior signal caller tore his right ACL in the victory last weekend against Georgia Southern. Offshore betting outlets initially opened the line at -20 in favor of the Aggies, but they pulled and reposted the offer at -11 points after a few hours on the market. The game is off the board in Vegas, as brick-and-mortar books take a more cautious approach. Aggies quarterback Trevor Knight will miss the remainder of the regular season after injuring his right shoulder against Mississippi State.
Here’s a look at where all the SEC teams rank in average margin against the spread. Included is each team’s average betting line for the season, as well as record against the number.
|TEAM||AVERAGE ATS MARGIN||AVERAGE LINE||ATS RECORD|
|3. Texas A&M||2.2||-13.6||4-4-1|
|5. South Carolina||0.9||2.9||5-4|
|11. Ole Miss||-4.2||-8.4||3-6|
|12. Mississippi St.||-4.3||-5.4||4-5|
Below is another table showing how SEC teams fared against game totals, including average over-under margins and records. Here’s the tally through Week 10:
|TEAM||AVERAGE O/U MARGIN||AVERAGE TOTAL||O/U RESULTS|
|1. Ole Miss||6.7||61.3||5-4|
|2. Mississippi St.||6.2||54.5||4-5|
|7. Texas A&M||-0.1||58.7||3-5-1|
|13. South Carolina||-8.6||49.0||1-7-1|
LSU is the only FBS team in the nation not to eclipse a total this season, with 8 consecutive under wins. It’s playing 10.1 points per game below a 50.6 average over-under. The Tigers are facing a 45.5-point game total in their road clash this weekend at Arkansas, the lowest offering in the matchup in 10 years. They have combined for 62 points in the last two meetings.
Mississippi State is sporting the SEC’s best overs streak, with three wins in a row above the number. The offense is blossoming under quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who nabbed Offensive Player of the Week honors for a 4-touchdown performance in the win against Texas A&M last Saturday, scoring 129 points overall in its last three played. The Bulldogs may hit a roadblock against Alabama this weekend. They average 8.4 points per game and have not scored more than 20 in a contest since Nick Saban took over the Crimson Tide.