No. 15 Auburn is outpacing the spread by 13.4 points per game, tops in the SEC.
The Tigers have outscored their last three opponents (Louisiana Monroe, Mississippi State and Arkansas) by a combined score of 152-24, eclipsing the line by 81 points. It is Auburn’s highest three-game stretch above the number since 2007, when it won four in a row in the middle of a 9-4 season capped by a Chick-fil-A Bowl victory in overtime against Clemson (23-20). The Tigers’ 6-1 record against the spread is also best in the conference.
Auburn is a 4-point favorite this weekend at Ole Miss, where it is 8-1 straight up and 5-4 against the spread in its last 9 meetings as chalk at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. The South Point Casino in Las Vegas, the first sports book to open college football lines in May, initially posted the Rebels as 12-point favorites.
No. 1 Alabama is playing nearly a touchdown better than the number on average, aided by its 12 defensive or special teams scores this season. Defensive end Jonathan Allen’s 30-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown in the Crimson Tide’s 33-14 win against then-No. 6 Texas A&M last Saturday marked the 10th game in a row the reigning champs found the end zone minus the offense. Alabama is on a bye this week, prepping for its annual showdown against No. 19 LSU next time out.
The Aggies own the third-best differential against the spread at 5.5 points. Texas A&M has failed to cover in its last three games, though. Nonetheless, books are asking coach Kevin Sumlin’s squad to overcome 43.5 points when it hosts New Mexico State on Saturday. Texas A&M boasts a 5-0 record against the spread in games kicking off as a 40-point favorite or more since 1980.
No. 14 Florida’s defense is surprising the betting market, helping it play to a fourth-best 1.2 points above the number weekly. The unit has allowed 14 points or fewer in all but one contest this season, limiting opponents to below their projected team total in all but one by an average of 3.6 per game. The Gators are 7.5-point favorites against the East rival Bulldogs this weekend. The South Point pinned Georgia as 1-point chalk in preseason offerings.
Here’s a look at where all the SEC teams rank in average margin against the spread. Included is each team’s average betting line for the season, as well as record against the number.
|TEAM||AVERAGE ATS MARGIN||AVERAGE LINE||ATS RECORD|
|3. Texas A&M||5.5||-9.8||4-2-1|
|8. Ole Miss||-1.9||-7.5||3-4|
|9. South Carolina||-2.0||2.4||3-4|
|12. Mississippi St.||-7.1||-5.4||3-4|
Below is another table showing how SEC teams fared against game totals, including average over-under margins and records. Here’s the tally through Week 8:
|TEAM||AVERAGE O/U MARGIN||AVERAGE TOTAL||O/U RESULTS|
|1. Ole Miss||7.9||60.6||3-4|
|6. Mississippi St.||3.4||51.8||2-5|
|8. Texas A&M||1.0||56.6||2-4-1|
|14. South Carolina||-9.4||47.6||1-5-1|
South Carolina notched its first over win in its 34-28 victory against UMass last Saturday, surpassing a 46 game total by 16 points. It was the first time the Gamecocks scored more than 20 points all season and the first time they scored more than their projected total in the betting market — albeit by 1 point. South Carolina contests see the total stay south of the number on average by 9.4 points per game, the lowest in the SEC. LSU remains the only conference program yet to post an over-the-total victory.
Ole Miss is 3-4 O/U yet is playing at a conference-high 7.9 points above the total per game. Consistency has kept the Rebels at the top. Ole Miss games have reached 51 points or more every contest. Offshore sports books are dangling an over-under of 63 points for the Auburn matchup, the highest in at least the last 10 meetings.