ESPN’s Football Power Index assigns a win probability for each team during the college football season.
So, which SEC schools are favored to win? Which schools will need to pull an upset? Here are the FPI breakdowns for each team in Week 1:
South Alabama at Miss St (Noon ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Mississippi State to win, 97.7 percent
Overview: Nick Fitzgerald and Damian Williams will likely both see snaps at quarterback as the Bulldogs open the season with the Jaguars. ESPN is pretty confident in a Mississippi State win — no matter how the quarterback derby plays out.
Missouri at West Virginia (Noon ET, FS1)
ESPN FPI projection: West Virginia to win, 80.8 percent
Overview: Missouri is the biggest underdog of Week 1, according to the FPI. ESPN puts the odds of a Tigers win at less than 20 percent. That’s the perfect thing for Barry Odom to tape to the whiteboard before the game kicks off Saturday.
LSU vs. Wisconsin (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
ESPN FPI projection: LSU to win, 86.4 percent
Overview: This game might be slated for Lambeau Field, which is only a couple of hours north of Madison, but ESPN is still betting big on a Tigers win. New LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda will be going up against his old team while Leonard Fournette will be looking to start his run at a Heisman Trophy with a good game in Big Ten country.
UCLA vs. Texas A&M (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
ESPN FPI projection: Texas A&M to win, 60.6 percent
Overview: Las Vegas has the Aggies as a three-point favorite, but ESPN puts the odds of a Texas A&M win at better than 60 percent. Defensive coordinator John Chavis will need to put some pressure on UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen to make this prediction come to pass.
La. Tech at Arkansas (4 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Arkansas to win, 93 percent
Overview: The Razorbacks are big-time favorites against Louisiana Tech in Week 1. On paper, this is the perfect opportunity for new starters at quarterback and running back to build some confidence for the tougher games on the schedule.
North Carolina vs. Georgia (5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: Georgia to win, 59.1 percent
Overview: This is the closest game of the week, according to the FPI. Apparently, the folks at ESPN aren’t too concerned with the quarterback battle or the health of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. The pro-Georgia crowd at the Georgia Dome is likely a factor, too.
UMass at Florida (7:30 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Florida to win, 98.6 percent
Overview: FPI says the Gators are the most likely SEC school to notch a win this week against the Minutemen. In a perfect world, new quarterback Luke Del Rio plays brilliantly for about a half before taking a seat and watching the rest of a runaway victory.
Southern Miss at Kentucky (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
ESPN FPI projection: Kentucky to win, 79.6 percent
Overview: Las Vegas and ESPN are split on this one. Kentucky is a 6.5-point favorite, but its FPI win probability is almost 80 percent. Former Kentucky offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson will be on the opposite sideline Saturday, adding a little spice to the contest.
Southern California vs. Alabama (8 p.m. ET, ABC)
ESPN FPI projection: Alabama to win, 64.3 percent
Overview: The oddsmakers and computer guys don’t agree on this one, either. Both have Alabama as the favorite, but with a spread of 10.5 points, one might expect the win probability to be a bit higher. Fans at AT&T Stadium may see plenty of defense early, as both teams break in new quarterbacks.
Clemson at Auburn (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: Clemson to win, 70 percent
Overview: Auburn is the biggest home underdog in Week 1 as it welcomes in second-ranked Clemson. It will take a superior effort from quarterback Sean White to score the points necessary to stay with Deshaun Watson and the Clemson offense. The play of the Auburn defense is key, as it’s hard to imagine the home team winning a high-scoring contest.
Ole Miss vs. Florida State (Monday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: Florida State to win, 70.5 percent
Overview: The Seminoles are getting plenty of preseason love as a possible national championship contender. FPI has clearly bought into that as well. The Rebels will be hoping to leave Orlando with an upset on Labor Day, and with quarterback Chad Kelly, they’ll have more than a puncher’s chance.