ESPN’s Football Power Index assigns a win probability for every team and every game played during the college football season.
This weekend brings a bit of everything to the table. Three SEC teams have a win probability north of 90 percent, while two SEC East games are projected to be nail-biters.
Here’s a look at what the analysts project for each Week 10 game:
(All times ET)
Vanderbilt at No. 9 Auburn (Noon, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: Auburn to win, 93.5 percent
Overview: The Tigers are on fire, riding a five-game winning streak. Both the computers and the oddsmakers, who have them as a 25.5-point favorite, love Auburn to make it six in a row against the Commodores.
Georgia Southern at Ole Miss (Noon, ESPNU)
ESPN FPI projection: Ole Miss to win, 95.6 percent
Overview: Auburn’s latest victim, Ole Miss, will be looking to bounce back this weekend. The Tigers are almost a four-touchdown favorite, which is in line with their high win probability.
No. 4 Texas A&M at Mississippi State (Noon, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Texas A&M to win, 80.7 percent
Overview: If the season ended today, Texas A&M would be in the College Football Playoff. It doesn’t, of course, so the Aggies will need to take care of business in Starkville this weekend.
The bookies, who have made the Aggies a 13-point favorite, and the analysts both lean heavily toward the road team.
No. 11 Florida at Arkansas (3:30 p.m., CBS)
ESPN FPI projection: Florida to win, 65.2 percent
Overview: The sharps and the FPI diverge a little for this game. The Gators’ win probability is a little higher than the spread (Florida -4.5) might suggest.
Florida has won nine of the 10 games in this series and hasn’t lost to the Razorbacks since the 1982 Bluebonnet Bowl.
Missouri at South Carolina (4 p.m., SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: South Carolina to win, 54.7 percent
Overview: Missouri hasn’t won a game since late September, but the FPI gives it more than a puncher’s chance in its visit to the other Columbia this weekend. The Gamecocks are a 6.5-point favorite, which is a little more in line with both teams’ recent form.
Tennessee Tech at Tennessee (4 p.m., SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Tennessee to win, 99.4 percent
Overview: It’s been a rough few weeks for the Volunteers, but a visit from Tennessee Tech should be the perfect recipe to get back on the winning track.
Tennessee is 5-0 all-time against the Golden Eagles, but the teams haven’t met since 1951.
Georgia at Kentucky (7:30 p.m., SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Georgia to win, 58.6 percent
Overview: It’s a dated reference, but Kentucky may be feeling a little like Rodney Dangerfield — getting no respect. The Wildcats are second in the SEC East and are playing at home, but are underdogs in both the FPI and the betting lines (Georgia -2).
No. 1 Alabama at No. 13 LSU (8 p.m., CBS)
ESPN FPI projection: Alabama to win, 65.6 percent
Overview: It’s telling that a 65.6-percent win probability is the lowest for the Crimson Tide this season. They’re a 7.5-point favorite Saturday night over the Tigers in Baton Rouge, but six of the last 10 meetings have been decided by less than that.