ESPN’s Football Power Index assigns a win probability for every team and every game played during the college football season.
Six of the seven games this week feature a team with a win probability of at least 69 percent. The other is about as close to a toss-up as the FPI can spit out.
Here’s a look at what the analysts project for each Week 11 game:
(All times ET)
Mississippi State at Alabama (Noon, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: Alabama to win, 95.8 percent
Overview: The defending national champions are more than a four-touchdown favorite at home against Mississippi State, and the Crimson Tide’s win probability of nearly 96 percent reflects that.
Alabama has won eight straight games in this series, including the last four meetings in Tuscaloosa.
South Carolina at Florida (Noon, CBS)
ESPN FPI projection: Florida to win, 85.4 percent
Overview: Florida was on the wrong end of a 31-10 decision against Arkansas last week, but the computer says it should bounce back against the Gamecocks on Saturday.
The Gators are an 11-point favorite but have lost four of the last six meetings against South Carolina.
Kentucky at Tennessee (Noon, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Tennessee to win, 88.9 percent
Overview: Pick a number for this game and chances are it’s in Tennessee’s favor. The oddsmakers like the Volunteers to win by 14 points, which isn’t quite the margin one would expect with a win probability of almost 89 percent.
History also leans hard toward the Volunteers, who have won 30 of the last 31 meetings.
Auburn at Georgia (3:30 p.m., CBS)
ESPN FPI projection: Auburn to win, 81.5 percent
Overview: While both the analysts and the bookies like Auburn, there is a little difference in how much. A win probability over 81 percent would normally lend itself to a spread of more than 10 points.
This will be the 120th meeting in the series, with the Bulldogs holding a razor-thin edge of 56-55-8.
Vanderbilt at Missouri (3:30 p.m., SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Missouri to win, 53.4 percent
Overview: Win probabilities are never 100 or zero percent. They don’t often come back at 50 percent, either.
ESPN gives a slight edge to Missouri in its SEC East clash with Vanderbilt, and the spread (Missouri -3.5) just about covers the home-field advantage.
LSU at Arkansas (7 p.m., ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: LSU to win, 77.7 percent
Overview: This game should be played in Las Vegas, because all the numbers are coming up sevens. The win probability for LSU is 77.7 percent, and the Tigers also are a seven-point favorite.
LSU will be hoping to get back on the winning track with a big night from another No. 7, Leonard Fournette.
Ole Miss at Texas A&M (7:30 p.m., SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Texas A&M to win, 69.8 percent
Overview: ESPN and the oddsmakers both like Texas A&M to rebound from its upset loss to Mississippi State with a home triumph over Ole Miss.
The Rebels are 10-point underdogs and will begin life without quarterback Chad Kelly, who’s out for the year with a right knee injury.