ESPN’s Football Power Index assigns a win probability for every team and every SEC game played during the college football season.
There are plenty of high-win probabilities this week, and according to the computer, we could be looking at a weekend without much drama.
That’s not projected to be the case in Starkville, Miss., though. The Mississippi State-Arkansas clash is almost a 50-50 proposition.
Here’s a look at what the analysts project for each Week 12 game:
(All times ET)
Louisiana (Lafayette) at Georgia (Noon, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Georgia to win, 94.9 percent
Overview: Fresh off an upset win against Auburn, the Bulldogs welcome the Ragin’ Cajuns. ESPN doesn’t think that Georgia will have much trouble, and the oddsmakers agree (Georgia -23).
UTSA at Texas A&M (Noon, ESPNU)
ESPN FPI projection: Texas A&M to win, 98.2 percent
Overview: The Aggies have been reeling a bit, dropping three of their last four. A visit from the Road Runners could be just what the doctor ordered.
As a 27.5-point favorite with a win probability north of 98 percent, anything less than an easy win for Texas A&M would be shocking.
Florida at LSU (1 p.m., SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: LSU to win, 82.1 percent
Overview: Both the bookies and the analysts agree on LSU as a significant home favorite in this rescheduled game. The Tigers are a 13.5-point favorite with a fairly high win probability.
That’s not the best news for Florida, which needs this win to lock up the SEC East.
Missouri at Tennessee (3:30 p.m., CBS)
ESPN FPI projection: Tennessee to win, 87.3 percent
Overview: The other factor in the SEC East is Tennessee, and the Volunteers need to take care of business this week and next — and get a little help from LSU — to clinch a spot in Atlanta.
The computers like the Vols this week, and as a 15-point favorite, it’s safe to say the bookies do, too.
Western Carolina at South Carolina (4 p.m., SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: South Carolina to win, 97.9 percent
Overview: The Gamecocks are one win away from automatic bowl eligibility, and the Catamounts don’t seem terribly likely to spoil what should be a festive atmosphere at Williams-Brice Stadium.
Austin Peay at Kentucky (4:30 p.m., SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Kentucky to win, 99.3 percent
Overview: If you needed proof that the FPI will serve up a 100-percent win probability, here it is. Austin Peay is a winless FCS team playing on the road against an SEC school on the cusp of becoming bowl eligible, yet ESPN still gives them a 0.7-percent chance to win.
So, they’re saying there’s a chance?
Chattanooga at Alabama (7 p.m., ESPN2)
ESPN FPI projection: Alabama to win, 99.4 percent
Overview: The Crimson Tide are huge favorites to swat away the Mocs this week. Aside from having the week off, it’s hard to imagine a better prep scenario for the Iron Bowl.
Auburn at Alabama A&M (7:30 p.m., SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Auburn to win, 99.9 percent
Overview: Here’s another nonconference lamb being led to slaughter this week in the SEC. It’s the closest the FPI can get to a 100-percent mark, but at least Auburn kept that guaranteed money in state.
Arkansas at Mississippi State (8 p.m., ESPNU)
ESPN FPI projection: Mississippi State to win, 53.7 percent
Overview: Despite having two fewer victories, Mississippi State is ESPN’s pick to win this one. The oddsmakers agree, installing the Bulldogs as a 2-point favorite.
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (8 p.m., SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Ole Miss to win, 78.2 percent
Overview: Ole Miss will be a road favorite in Shea Patterson’s second game as the starting quarterback. The bookies (Ole Miss -10) and the analysts both like the Rebels to become bowl eligible this weekend.