ESPN’s Football Power Index assigns a win probability for every team and every game played during the college football season.
This week’s SEC games feature lopsided blowouts on one side and projected nail-biters on the other. Here’s a look at what the FPI projects for each one:
Ohio at No. 15 Tennessee (Noon ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Tennessee to win, 97.7 percent
Overview: For the third week in a row, the number folks at ESPN love the Volunteers. The same is true for the oddsmakers, who have Tennessee as a nearly four-touchdown favorite.
Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech (12:30 ET, ESPN3)
ESPN FPI projection: Georgia Tech to win, 55.7 percent
Overview: The Commodores are underdogs in both the FPI and in the sports books this week. Vanderbilt will have to contend with a heavy dose of triple-option football to buck these numbers.
No. 1 Alabama at No. 19 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
ESPN FPI projection: Alabama to win, 68.6 percent
Overview: Both the FPI number and the spread (Alabama -11) are a bit bigger than some expected. Apparently, past success, in the form of consecutive wins by Ole Miss, is not being taken into account.
New Mexico State at Kentucky (4 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Kentucky to win, 88.1 percent
Overview: No SEC team needs a win worse than the Wildcats. As a three-touchdown favorite against the Aggies, they’ve got a pretty good chance of getting one.
East Carolina at South Carolina (4 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: South Carolina to win, 71.6 percent
Overview: There’s usually a couple of games a week where the FPI and oddsmakers don’t quite agree. The Pirates’ visit to South Carolina is one such occasion. The Gamecocks are only a three-point favorite in the eyes of Vegas, but ESPN’s analysts give South Carolina more than a 70-percent chance of winning.
No. 17 Texas A&M at Auburn (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: Auburn to win, 54.5 percent
Overview: The Aggies’ visit to the Plains will be the second-closest game of the week, according to the FPI. The bookies agree, tabbing Auburn as a 3.5-point favorite.
Mississippi State at No. 20 LSU (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
ESPN FPI projection: LSU to win, 86.4 percent
Overview: Both ESPN and the oddsmakers (LSU -14) are high on the Tigers in their SEC West matchup.
Texas State at No. 24 Arkansas (7:30 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Arkansas to win, 95.4 percent
Overview: After last week’s overtime win over TCU, Arkansas is likely headed for a bit of a breather against the Bobcats.
North Texas at No. 23 Florida (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
ESPN FPI projection: Florida to win, 98.8 percent
Overview: The Gators get to prepare for Tennessee by hosting North Texas in a game that is projected to be a big victory.
No. 16 Georgia at Missouri (7:30 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Georgia to win, 51.8 percent
Overview: It’s hard to get much tighter in the FPI than this one. The oddsmakers lean more toward the Bulldogs, tabbing them as a 6.5-point favorite.