ESPN’s Football Power Index assigns a win probability for every team and every game played during the college football season.
This week’s SEC games run the gamut from lead pipe locks (Alabama and Missouri) to virtual toss-ups (LSU and Auburn). Here’s a look at what the FPI projects for each one:
Kent State at No. 1 Alabama (Noon ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Alabama to win, 99.3 percent
Overview: Kent State is still looking for its first win against a FBS school, but all the Golden Flashes are likely to find in Tuscaloosa is a beating. Surely Nick Saban will empty the benches and take it easy late against his alma mater?
No. 12 Georgia at No. 23 Ole Miss (Noon ET, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: Ole Miss to win, 74.6 percent
Overview: The computers still are still high on the Rebels, despite their tendency to treat three-touchdown leads like they’re covered in raw sewage. The bookies like Ole Miss to bounce back as well, tabbing it as a seven-point favorite.
No. 19 Florida at No. 14 Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
ESPN FPI projection: Tennessee to win, 71 percent
Overview: ESPN seems pretty confident that Tennessee will snap its 11-game losing streak to the Gators, who will be playing in Neyland Stadium without quarterback Luke Del Rio.
Mississippi State at UMass (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3/ASN)
ESPN FPI projection: Mississippi State to win, 92.4 percent
Overview: Mississippi State hasn’t played in the northeast since Sept. 1986, but both the FPI and the oddsmakers (MSU -21.5) like the Bulldogs to level their record at 2-2 with a win over the Minutemen at Gillette Stadium.
Delaware State at Missouri (4 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Missouri to win, 99.8 percent
Overview: The computers say that this is the most lopsided SEC game of the week. The FCS Hornets are winless on the season, and seem destined to remain so after their trip to Faurot Field.
Vanderbilt at Western Kentucky (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports)
ESPN FPI projection: Western Kentucky to win, 59.1 percent
Overview: The Commodores aren’t getting much love from the FPI this week. The oddsmakers are in line with the computers, pegging Vanderbilt as an eight-point underdog.
No. 18 LSU at Auburn (6 p.m. ET, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: LSU to win, 50.1 percent
Overview: If computers could flip coins to make decisions, that’s what would be happening with a 50.1-percent win probability for LSU this weekend. The bookies also lean toward the road team, tabbing LSU as a 3.5-point favorite.
South Carolina at Kentucky (7:30 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: South Carolina to win, 62.1 percent
Overview: Kentucky’s defensive issues weigh heavily against it in the FPI, which tabs the Wildcats as a home underdog this weekend. The sports books see it a little differently with Kentucky as a slight 2.5-point favorite.
No. 17 Arkansas vs. No. 10 Texas A&M (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: Texas A&M to win, 74.9 percent
Overview: The FPI leans a little more heavily than some may have expected toward the Aggies in this Top-25 contest. The oddsmakers also favor Texas A&M on the neutral turf of AT&T Stadium, installing it as a six-point favorite.