ESPN’s Football Power Index assigns a win probability for every team and every game played during the college football season.
If you believe the computers in Bristol, this is going to be a week full of runaways. The closest game on the board is Tennessee’s visit to Georgia, and the FPI gives Tennessee better than a 70-percent chance to win. Here’s a look at what the FPI projects for each one:
Alcorn State at No. 20 Arkansas (Noon ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Arkansas to win, 99.5 percent
Overview: Alcorn State brings a two-game losing streak into a meeting with Arkansas at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock. These two teams have never met, and it seems likely that this series will begin with a big win for the Razorbacks.
No. 23 Florida at Vanderbilt (Noon ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Florida to win, 74.7 percent
Overview: Florida survived an upset scare against the Commodores last season, pulling out a 9-7 win. The oddsmakers have the Gators as a 10-point favorite, and the FPI leans their way as well.
Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn (3:30 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Auburn to win, 98.4 percent
Overview: If this game has anywhere near as much drama as the win over LSU did, things will have gone horribly wrong for Auburn. As a 32.5-point favorite and a near lock with the computers, it’s unlikely to be an issue.
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 25 Georgia (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
ESPN FPI projection: Tennessee to win, 71.6 percent
Overview: There’s a bit of a split between the FPI and the bookies this week. Tennessee is only a three-point favorite at Sanford Stadium, and that doesn’t quite jive with the win probability from the analysts.
No. 9 Texas A&M at South Carolina (4 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Texas A&M to win, 88.7 percent
Overview: Kevin Sumlin’s squad is a big road favorite (-17.5) in Columbia against the Gamecocks this week. The FPI agrees, calling for a near-90-percent chance for a Texas A&M win.
Kentucky at No. 1 Alabama (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: Alabama to win, 97.9 percent
Overview: The Crimson Tide cruised against Kent State last week, and the FPI is calling for more of the same when Kentucky makes the trip down to Tuscaloosa.
Memphis at No. 16 Ole Miss (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
ESPN FPI projection: Ole Miss to win, 86.1 percent
Overview: The loss at Memphis was a sore spot for Ole Miss last season, and the Rebels will be looking for a measure of revenge at home on Saturday. The computers suggest they’ll get it.
Missouri at LSU (7:30 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: LSU to win, 80.9 percent
Overview: It doesn’t look like ESPN’s FPI takes coaching changes into account when making predictions. The oddsmakers agree, tabbing LSU as a 13-point favorite.