ESPN’s Football Power Index assigns a win probability for every team and every game played during the college football season.
If you ask the computer, Week 9 is destined to offer a string of beatings, broken only by a decent game between Auburn and Ole Miss.
The FPI is squarely behind Missouri, Florida and Tennessee in their respective SEC East games. It also thinks Texas A&M’s starters will have a short day against New Mexico State.
Here’s a look at what the analysts project for each game:
Kentucky at Missouri (Noon ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Missouri to win, 74.1 percent
Overview: The computers and the bookies are expecting a bounceback from Missouri when Kentucky comes calling on Saturday. The Tigers are 5-point favorites, which isn’t quite as high as the win probability would suggest.
No. 14 Florida vs. Georgia (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
ESPN FPI projection: Florida to win, 73.2 percent
Overview: The Gators are 7-point favorites against the Bulldogs at “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” this weekend in Jacksonville, and that’s pretty much in line with their win probability.
Florida has won six of the last 10 meetings. Aside from 1994 and 1995, the game has been in Jacksonville every year since 1933.
Samford at Mississippi State (3:30 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Mississippi State to win, 91.0 percent
Overview: Ninety-one percent is a high win probability, but it isn’t as high as it usually is when an SEC school hosts an FCS opponent. It seems that Samford (6-1) isn’t your average cupcake.
Coach Dan Mullen has won six consecutive homecoming games, however, and he’ll look to make it seven.
No. 15 Auburn at Ole Miss (7:15 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Auburn to win, 57.3 percent
Overview: This is projected to be the most competitive game on the Week 9 slate. It has the lowest win probability and the lowest spread (Auburn -5.5). The Tigers have history on their side, too, having won five of the last seven meetings.
A close game would buck the recent trend, however. Eight of the last 11 have been decided by double digits.
No. 18 Tennessee at South Carolina (7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
ESPN FPI projection: Tennessee to win, 85.0 percent
Overview: ESPN’s FPI isn’t too worried about a letdown by the Volunteers. They’re almost 2-touchdown favorites, but the last four meetings have been decided by 3 points or less.
Another statistical oddity is neither head coach has lost to the opposing school. South Carolina’s Will Muschamp was 4-0 against Tennessee during his Florida days. Tennessee’s Butch Jones is perfect in three tries against the Gamecocks.
New Mexico State at No. 9 Texas A&M (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
ESPN FPI projection: Texas A&M to win, 99.5 percent
Overview: The FPI never is going to spit out a 100 percent win probability, but it came close in the Battle of the Aggies at Kyle Field. The oddsmakers aren’t looking for a close game, either, tabbing Texas A&M as a 43.5-point favorite.