ESPN’s Football Power Index assigns a win probability for every team and every game played during the college football season.
The analysts suggest this week could have some games that come down to the final minutes. Only Alabama has a win probability higher than 80 percent, and the Vanderbilt/Kentucky game is a virtual toss-up.
There are also some games in which the FPI and the bookies disagree. Here’s a look at what the FPI projects for each game:
Auburn at Mississippi State (Noon ET, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: Auburn to win, 67.0 percent
Overview: The Tigers have some momentum heading into a road trip to Starkville this week. The FPI is a little more confident in Auburn than the oddsmakers, who have it as only a 2.5-point favorite.
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Texas A&M (3:30 ET, CBS)
ESPN FPI projection: Texas A&M to win, 68.8 percent
Overview: Both teams are unbeaten and ranked in the top 10, but both the bookies (Texas A&M -7) and the analysts are leaning heavily towards the home team. Tennessee owns a pair of bowl wins against Texas A&M, but the Volunteers have never been to Kyle Field.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (4 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Vanderbilt to win, 54.8 percent
Overview: This SEC East clash is projected to be the most competitive of the week, with ESPN giving Vanderbilt a slight edge. The bookies are also expecting a close game, but they like Kentucky, tabbing it as a 3-point favorite.
No. 1 Alabama at No. 16 Arkansas (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
ESPN FPI projection: Alabama to win, 84.6 percent
Overview: Both ESPN and the bookies (Alabama -14) love the Crimson Tide on the road against Arkansas this week. Alabama has won four straight games in Fayetteville, and nine straight overall in the series.
Georgia at South Carolina (Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET, SECN)
ESPN FPI projection: Georgia to win, 60.3 percent
Overview: Hurricane Matthew pushed this game back to Sunday afternoon, which will alter the preparation for both schools. The computer has this game as the second-closest of the week, but the oddsmakers like Georgia a little more, installing it as a touchdown favorite.